Econometric Modelling of The Scenario Forecast of The Socio-Economic Development of The Bukhara Region Up to 2030

The article addresses the forecasting of the socio-economic development of the Bukhara region for 2026–2030. The forecasting methodology combines multifactor econometric modelling and a scenario approach. Based on three scenarios (inertial, moderate and optimistic), a forecast of the gross regional product (GRP), investment, the unemployment rate and foreign-trade indicators was developed. Under the optimistic scenario, by 2030 the region’s GRP is projected to reach 215.5 trillion soums (+148.8%), exports to reach 4,115.9 million USD, and the foreign-trade deficit to turn into a surplus of 178.5 million USD.