Publication Details
Abstract
The rapid spread of online booking technologies and the liberalisation of visa regimes have turned the free independent traveler (FIT) into a distinct and economically significant market segment. Conventional destination management, however, still measures the value of a tourist flow chiefly by head-count, a metric that obscures how much of the money spent actually remains in the host territory. This paper proposes and applies a multi-criterion, efficiency-based segmentation framework in which source markets are grouped not by demographic labels but by the net economic value they leave behind. Using official statistics for 2017–2025 and a k-means clustering of forty-four source markets that jointly account for roughly ninety-nine per cent of arrivals, the study first reconstructs the size and dynamics of Uzbekistan's independent flow through a subtraction method, then derives each segment's net contribution by deducting estimated import leakage from gross expenditure. Three clusters emerge: high-volume neighboring mass markets (A), mid-sized high-value long-haul markets (B) and small but fast-growing niche markets (C). The central finding is counter-intuitive for prevailing policy: although segment A records the lowest per-capita spending, its enormous volume and very low leakage make it the source of about three-quarters of the net economic contribution. The results reframe the policy debate, suggesting that formalizing micro-providers, easing cross-border mobility and reducing leakage in long-haul segments deliver larger returns than the customary focus on high-spending long-haul arrivals alone.