Econometric Study of Indicators of the Macroeconomic Impact of Multilateral and Regional Trade Agreements on the Economy of Uzbekistan

This article economically analyzes the macroeconomic impact of multilateral and regional trade agreements on the economy of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Based on quarterly time-series data comprising 40 observations from 2016 to 2025, a multi-factor econometric model was developed to evaluate the relationship between real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and key macroeconomic determinants: foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation rate (INF), and economic openness (OPENEC). The empirical analysis utilized Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) alongside rigorous diagnostic evaluations, including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) stationarity tests, correlation matrix assessments, and residual diagnostics. The findings demonstrate that foreign direct investment and economic openness exert a statistically significant positive effect on real GDP growth, whereas inflation impacts economic dynamics negatively. Based on the calibrated econometric model, future forecast trajectories for Uzbekistan's real GDP were calculated, providing empirical insights for optimizing foreign trade strategies.