An Econometric Model of Lending Efficiency in Uzbek State-Owned Commercial Banks and a Forecast of Lending Volume Up to 2030

This article investigates the methodology for assessing the lending practice of commercial banks with a dominant state shareholding in the banking system of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Drawing on official ranking data as of 1 January for the years 2021-2025, a balanced panel dataset covering ten state-owned banks was compiled (n = 50), and the relationship between the volume of the gross loan portfolio and its determinants - equity capital, attracted deposits and the share of non-performing loans - was quantified by means of log-linear regression models (pooled OLS, a fixed-effects specification and an extended specification incorporating the NPL ratio). The fixed-effects model yields a capital elasticity of 0.435 and a deposit elasticity of 0.342, with an explanatory power of 98.4 per cent; the sum of the elasticities (0.777) points to decreasing returns to scale in lending activity. On the basis of trend and structural models, a forecast of the lending volume of state banks up to 2030 has been developed under three scenarios: UZS 610.4 trillion in the inertial scenario, UZS 656.5 trillion in the baseline scenario and UZS 786.2 trillion in the optimistic scenario. The findings underpin a set of recommendations aimed at improving the credit policy of state-owned banks.