From Research Inputs to Market Outcomes: An Evidence-Based Framework for Research Commercialization in an Emerging Innovation System

This paper develops an evidence-based framework for evaluating research commercialization in an emerging innovation system, using Uzbekistan as the empirical and institutional setting. It first uses 2024 cross-sectional data for 14 regions to diagnose the association between innovation expenditure, research capacity and innovative product output. Innovation expenditure is positively associated with innovative output, but the estimates are statistically imprecise: the coefficient is 0.587 (p = 0.129) in the simple log-log model and 0.481 (p = 0.388) in the extended model. Because N = 14 and major identification problems remain, these results are interpreted as diagnostic rather than causal. The paper then proposes a prospective evaluation design for a commercialization-management pilot involving at least 24 research organizations and 600 research developments, with eight pre-intervention quarters and four to eight post-intervention quarters. The design combines matching, parallel-trend assessment, Difference-in-Differences and event-study analysis, while PPML, logit/probit, Kaplan-Meier and Cox models are matched to count, binary and time-to-event outcomes. The contribution is a mechanism-to-impact logic that links management interventions to intermediate change, stage conversion, verified transactions, repeat sales, private investment and economic impact.