Publication Details
Abstract
This article examines the impact of financial autonomy reforms on the competitiveness of higher education institutions (HEIs) in a transition economy, using Bukhara State University (Uzbekistan) as a case study. Five indicators for 2015–2025 were analyzed: total revenues, non-budget revenues, expenditures financed from own funds, funds generated from research and innovation activities, and the number of international scientific publications. These indicators were integrated into a single competitiveness index using normalization relative to the maximum value and analyzed through a multifactor power (multiplicative) regression model, a parabolic trend model, and Holt’s exponential smoothing model. In addition, forecasts for 2027–2030 were developed under three scenarios: pessimistic, baseline, and optimistic. The integrated index increased from 10.56% in 2015 to 95.45% in 2024, followed by a slight decline to 87.50% in 2025. According to the forecast estimates, the index is expected to reach between 143.67% and 175.60% by 2030, depending on the scenario. Total revenues and expenditures financed from own funds demonstrate the highest elasticities, at 0.285 and 0.246, respectively, while research and innovation funds and the number of international publications demonstrate the highest projected growth rates. The findings indicate that financial autonomy, when combined with revenue diversification, has a positive effect on the competitiveness of a public university located outside major scientific centers. The results have practical relevance for Central Asian countries and other transition economies.