Economic Assessment of Wheat Demand and the Production Capacity of Flour-Milling Enterprises in the Syrdarya Region

This study examines the economic relationship between wheat demand, raw-material supply, and the production capacity of flour-milling enterprises in the Syrdarya region of Uzbekistan. The assessment of regional wheat demand is based not only on household consumption but also on the industrial demand generated by grain-processing and flour-producing enterprises. Particular attention is paid to production capacity utilization, sources of wheat supply, processing intensity, flour production, and the role of local and imported wheat in the regional grain-processing value chain. The empirical analysis is based on regional statistical indicators and primary data collected from flour-milling enterprises operating in the Syrdarya region. A detailed case study of “Oq Oltin Don Mahsulotlari” JSC is conducted using its 2025 production and economic indicators. The results show that the region has considerable wheat production and processing potential; however, the availability of wheat in physical terms does not automatically ensure efficient utilization of existing milling capacities. Differences in wheat quality, technological characteristics, procurement mechanisms, supply continuity, and market orientation significantly influence the choice of raw materials and capacity utilization by processing enterprises.
The case study reveals that actual milling capacity utilization at “Oq Oltin Don Mahsulotlari” JSC amounted to 40.18%, compared with a planned level of 75%, while capacity utilization under toll-processing arrangements reached 62.22%. The findings indicate that the key economic challenge is not merely to increase wheat production, but to improve the coordination between local wheat production and the quantitative and qualitative requirements of the processing industry. The study proposes strengthening farmer–processor integration, improving market-oriented wheat quality, expanding contractual supply mechanisms, and increasing the participation of locally produced wheat in the regional value-added chain.