Modeling and Forecasting the Impact of Investment and Innovation Activity on Regional Economic Development

This study assesses the impact of investment volume and research and development (R&D) expenditure on the growth of the Gross Regional Product (GRP) of Surkhandarya region, based on statistical data for 2011–2025, using ARIMA and ARIMAX econometric models, and develops forecast indicators for 2026–2031. The analysis results revealed that a 1-unit increase in investment volume leads to a 0.16-unit increase in GRP, and investment volume is forecasted to grow from 21,721.7 billion soums in 2026 to 30,211.0 billion soums in 2031 (a 39.1% increase). Under the influence of innovation factors, the region's GRP is expected to amount to 63,032.9 billion soums in 2026 and reach 95,963.3 billion soums in 2031. The statistical reliability and high accuracy of the developed models were fully confirmed by the Dickey–Fuller and Ljung–Box tests, as well as by the approximation error (MAPE of 4.89% and 6.86%).