Assessing the role of Digital Transformation and Innovation Infrastructure in Regional Economic Growth in Khorezm Region

This paper estimates the contribution of digital infrastructure, ICT-sector wages, household income, investment dynamics and the small-business structure to gross regional product (GRP) and produces a scenario forecast for Khorezm region for 2026–2030. Because only five annual observations are available for Khorezm, a six-factor log-linear model is estimated on a pooled panel of the 14 regions of Uzbekistan for 2021–2024 (56 observations) and then calibrated to the region. The model explains 95.2% of GRP variation (R = 0.976; F = 161.7). Internet subscriber base (elasticity 0.84) and per capita income (0.94) are the dominant drivers. A potential realisation coefficient is proposed: Khorezm produces about 11% less output than its factor endowment predicts, ranking 13th of 14 regions. In the baseline scenario Khorezm’s GRP reaches 139.3 trillion UZS by 2030.