Current State of Value Added Tax Revenues and Administration in the Republic of Uzbekistan: An Analysis

The article analyses the dynamics and structure of value added tax (VAT) revenues in the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2019–2025 and the current state of VAT administration, with special attention to the formation and refund of the negative VAT difference (the excess of input VAT over output VAT). Official data of the Tax Committee, the Ministry of Economy and Finance and the Statistics Agency are used. The study applies time-series, structural and index analysis, including a rate-adjusted index of the implicit VAT base. The results show that VAT receipts grew 1.9 times in nominal terms, while their share in tax revenue declined from 28.5 to 20.2 per cent, mainly because of the two-step reduction of the standard rate (20→15→12 per cent); the rate-adjusted base expanded about 3.2 times. For enterprises administered by the Tax Inspectorate for Large Taxpayers, the negative VAT difference rose from 10.0 to 16.6 trillion soums in 2021–2024, while only 64–69 per cent of it was refunded within the year. Refund procedures remain lengthy (up to four months when a taxpayer disputes the audit report), although unjustified refunds made up only about 0.12 per cent of the refunded amount. The article proposes risk-based and data-driven directions for improving the refund mechanism.