Publication Details
Journal: Central Asian Journal of Innovations on Tourism Management and Finance
Issue: Vol 7, No 4 (2026)
Pages: 338-345
ISSN: 2660-454X
Check on Google Scholar DOI: 10.51699/cajitmf.v7i4.1377 Visit Article Page

Abstract

This study analyzes the main economic and digital factors influencing the development of e-commerce services in the Samarkand region using econometric methods. Based on data for 2014–2025, the relationship between electronic payments, internet subscribers, service volume, small business, investment, and other indicators and e-commerce volume is assessed. Correlation analysis and the VIF test are used to identify relationships among the factors and the presence of multicollinearity. The ARDL-ECM model is applied to assess short- and long-term relationships, while the ARIMAX model is used to forecast e-commerce development through 2030. The results show that electronic payments, internet infrastructure, and investment are important factors in the development of e-commerce.

Keywords
e-commerce digital economy electronic payments internet investment small business econometric model ARDL-ECM ARIMAX forecasting
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